By Dr John Latham
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Extra info for A Scheme For Global Warming Mitigation Via Controlled Enhancement Of The Reflectivity Of Maritime Clouds
3 Lake Tahoes] 720 billion tons Subsequent 8x increse in outflow glacier speed Correlation of Disease Clusters with the 1997-1998 El Nino Weather Extremes El Nino expected to become more frequent under climate change Source: Epstein, Harvard Medical School, Science World Health Organization estimates climate change already causing 150,000 premature deaths/yr in 2000 Overwhelming Correlations Synthesis of Scientific Literature on Observed Changes 1970-2004 • 577 studies reviewed • 765 observed physical changes (94% consistent with warming) • 28,671 observed biological changes (90% consistent with warming) Source: IPCC 4th Assessment (2007) Is there a scientific consensus that global warming is real?
Total cost: ~$80B/year Current insured portion unknown: most are below ISO/PCS threshold for being “worth” counting Power outages were a factor in slowness of draining New Orleans following Hurricane Katrina. 7B for NY important for contingent business interruption. 4 Trillion World Insurance Market • • • • World’s biggest industry; important to economic development Large employer Major player in financial markets Enormous political influence 2005 Source: Swiss Re, Sigma No. 5/2005 Disasters Look Different Through an Insurance “Lens” Aggregate Global Impacts: 1980-2004 Source: E.
5/2005 Disasters Look Different Through an Insurance “Lens” Aggregate Global Impacts: 1980-2004 Source: E. ) Non-climate factors play a role, but… $2004 insured losses $2004 total non-weather-related natural-disaster losses 20 $2004 property insurance premiums $2004 GDP population • Trends consistent with observed change • Why are non-weather losses level? 7 billion 10 5 0 1980 Source: E. Mills Science 309, 1040 -1044 (2005) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Notes: All economic values inflation-adkusted to 2004 levels.